Available Scenarios

The tool function toolGetScenarioDefinition() can be used to see what driver/scenario options are available.

toolGetScenarioDefinition() %>% print(n = 200)
#> # A tibble: 23 × 5
#>    driver     scenario pastData                  futureData        harmonization
#>    <chr>      <chr>    <chr>                     <chr>             <chr>        
#>  1 GDPpc      SSPs     WDI-MI                    SSPs-MI           calibSSPs    
#>  2 GDPpc      SSP2     WDI-MI                    SSP2-MI           calibSSPs    
#>  3 GDPpc      SDPs     -                         -                 calibSDPs    
#>  4 GDPpc      SSP2EU   -                         -                 GDPoverPop   
#>  5 GDPpc      ISIMIP   WDI-MI                    SSPs-MI           calibSSPs    
#>  6 GDP        SSPs     -                         -                 GDPpcWithPop 
#>  7 GDP        SSP2     -                         -                 GDPpcWithPop 
#>  8 GDP        SDPs     -                         -                 GDPpcWithPop 
#>  9 GDP        ISIMIP   -                         -                 GDPpcWithPop 
#> 10 GDP        SSP2EU   Eurostat-WDI-MI           SSP2EU-MI         calibSSP2EU  
#> 11 Population SSPs     WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI          SSPs-UN_PopDiv-MI withPEAPandF…
#> 12 Population SSP2     WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI          SSP2-UN_PopDiv-MI withPEAPandF…
#> 13 Population SDPs     WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI          SDPs-UN_PopDiv-MI withPEAPandF…
#> 14 Population SSP2EU   Eurostat-WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI SSP2EU-UN_PopDiv… calibSSP2EU  
#> 15 Population ISIMIP   UN_PopDiv-MI              SSPs-UN_PopDiv-MI calibISIMIP  
#> 16 Labour     SSPs     WDI                       SSPs              pastAndLevel 
#> 17 Labour     SSP2     WDI                       SSP2              pastAndLevel 
#> 18 Labour     SDPs     WDI                       SDPs              pastAndLevel 
#> 19 Labour     SSP2EU   WDI                       SSP2EU            pastAndLevel 
#> 20 Urban      SSPs     WDI                       SSPs              pastAndGrowth
#> 21 Urban      SSP2     WDI                       SSP2              pastAndGrowth
#> 22 Urban      SDPs     WDI                       SDPs              pastAndGrowth
#> 23 Urban      SSP2EU   WDI                       SSP2EU            pastAndGrowth

So for example, there are currently 4 GDPpc scenarios available: the SSPs, SSP2, the SDPs, and SSP2EU.

User Defined Scenarios

The user can create custom scenarios by creating a tibble called “mrdivers_scenarios” in the global environment, and filling it with the desired scenario definitions. The structure of the “mrdivers_scenarios” object should be identical to that of the return object of toolGetScenarioDefinition(), and the scenario building blocks have to be available. For example, say the user wanted to create SSP scenarios, but without using the Missing Islands data-set. The following command executed in the global environment would make the “nomi” (no-missing islands) scenario available.

mrdrivers_scenarios <- tibble::tribble(
  ~driver,      ~scenario,      ~pastData,                    ~futureData,            ~harmonization,
  "GDPpc",      "nomi",         "WDI",                        "SSPs",                 "calibSSPs",
  "Population", "nomi",         "WDI",                        "SSPs",                 "withPEAPandFuture",
  "GDP",        "nomi",         "-",                          "-",                    "GDPpcWithPop"
)

Default Scenarios

By default, the following scenarios are returned for all drivers:

the SSPs, i.e. SSP1-5
the SDPs, i.e. SDP, SDP_EI, SDP_RC, and SDP_MC
SSP2EU

References

GDP and GDPpc scenarios

SSPs

Suggested overall reference: Koch and Leimbach 2023 (link).

Detailed references: the SSP GDP per capita scenarios are constructed using past WDI data (link) (filled in with MI data (link), and growth rates from James2019-WB data (DOI of previous version of data: doi:10.1186/1478-7954-10-12)) and SSP GDP projections (filled in with MI projections (link)). The harmonization makes use of short term growth rates from IMF (link). For more details on the harmonization, see Koch and Leimbach 2023 (link).

SDPs

The SDPs are all based off of SSP1, with different harmonization functions for the different SDPs. No citable reference available.

SSP2EU

SSP2EU is based off of SSP2, but for EUR-Region countries, Eurostat data and short-term projections (link) are used instead of WDI and IMF data.

Population scenarios

SSPs

Suggested overall references: K. C., S, 2020 (link) and Lutz et al., 2018 (link).

Detailed references: the SSP population scenarios are constructed using past WDI data (link) (filled in with UN_PopDiv data (link) and MI data (link), and SSP population projections (filled in with UN_PopDiv data (link) and MI data (link). The harmonization makes use of short term growth rates from the World Bank’s Population and Projections database (link). For more details on the harmonization, see Koch and Leimbach 2023 (link).

SDPs

The SDPs are all based off of SSP1, with different harmonization functions for the different SDPs. No citable reference available.

SSP2EU

SSP2EU is based off of SSP2, but for EUR-Region countries, Eurostat data and short-term projections (link) are used instead of WDI and UN_PopDiv data.